Overview

• Bill 54, which eases requirements for citizen-led constitutional referendums, is progressing through Alberta's legislature, setting the stage for a possible 2026 vote on separation.
• The legislation reduces the signature threshold to 177,000 and extends the petition period to 120 days, significantly lowering barriers to triggering a referendum.
• Premier Danielle Smith has stated she will respect the outcome of a separation referendum if the petition meets the new threshold, despite personally opposing secession.
• Polls indicate 30–40% of Albertans support separation, the highest levels recorded, while municipal leaders warn of severe economic and social consequences.
• The Republican Party of Alberta has doubled its membership since the federal election, advocating for a referendum as a tool to challenge federal energy and climate policies.