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Canada's Inflation Surges to 2.6% Following End of Tax Holiday

The unexpected rise, driven by broad-based price pressures, complicates the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions.

People shop at a grocery store in Toronto, Ontario, Canada November 22, 2022.  REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo
People pay for their items at a grocery store in Toronto, Ontario, Canada November 22, 2022.  REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo
A server brings food to a table as people dine at a restaurant in Vancouver, on Tuesday, September 21, 2021. Tipping fatigue is hitting consumers as requests for gratuities increase and spread to new businesses amid the rise of automated payment machines and preset tip suggestions.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
A person carries shopping bags along a street in Montreal, Saturday, December 14, 2024. February's inflation release from Statistics Canada will reveal the impact of an unwinding of the two-month federal sales tax break. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes

Overview

  • February's inflation rate of 2.6% marks the first time in seven months it has exceeded the Bank of Canada's 2% midpoint target.
  • The end of a temporary GST/HST holiday significantly contributed to the increase, with inflation estimated to have been 3% without the tax break.
  • Core inflation measures, CPI-median and CPI-trim, rose to 2.9% in February, reflecting widespread price increases across key categories like food, clothing, and shelter.
  • Monthly inflation saw a sharp rise to 1.1% in February from 0.1% in January, surpassing analyst predictions of 0.6%.
  • Rising inflation pressures have led markets to anticipate a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in April, as policymakers face challenges balancing economic uncertainties and inflation control.