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CEO Confidence Plummets as Majority Predict U.S. Recession

A new survey highlights growing pessimism among business leaders, fueled by Trump’s erratic tariff policies and escalating economic uncertainty.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned the U.S. could see something “worse than a recession.”
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Overview

  • A Chief Executive Group survey reveals 62% of U.S. CEOs anticipate a slowdown or recession within six months, up from 48% in March.
  • CEO confidence in current business conditions has dropped to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 28% decline since January 2025.
  • President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies have disrupted financial markets and worsened consumer sentiment, intensifying economic concerns.
  • High-profile executives, including Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon, warn of potential severe economic downturns, with some suggesting risks beyond a typical recession.
  • In response to the bleak outlook, 39% of CEOs plan to reduce headcount, while only 37% expect profit growth this year, down sharply from earlier projections.