Democrats Outperform Biden in Recent Elections Despite his Unpopularity

Democrats have won 21 out of 27 state legislative races this year, outperforming Biden's approval rating by around 7 percentage points on average.
Biden's poor approval ratings in polls have not translated to Democratic losses in special elections so far.
Democrats have successfully used the issue of abortion rights to motivate their base and sway some moderate Republican voters.
Special election results have historically been predictive of broader trends in upcoming elections.
Current Democratic overperformance compared to Biden's polls suggest potential gains for them in the 2024 elections.