Earth Expected to Hit 1.5°C Warming Threshold by 2029 Due to Current Rate of Fossil Fuel Consumption, Study Finds

Study moves up date of critical climate threshold due to reductions in aerosol emissions, which have unmasked faster temperature rises; carbon budget to achieve Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit is likely to be depleted by 2029.

According to a recent study, the world may cross the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold as early as 2029 if it continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, which is three years earlier than previously projected.
The study attributes this accelerated warming to reductions in aerosol emissions, a type of air pollution that cools the planet and masks the effects of burning fossil fuels.
The study defines the 'carbon budget' as the maximum amount of fossil fuels the world can burn while still having a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It sets the carbon budget at 250 billion metric tons—with the world burning over 40 billion metric tons a year, this budget is projected to be depleted by 2029.
While crossing the 1.5C threshold will increase the risks of catastrophic events like coral reef loss, irreversible ice melt, water shortages, and extreme weather, this does not mean that all efforts to combat climate change will be futile beyond this point. The study emphasizes the imperative to limit warming as much as possible, even if the 1.5C limit is surpassed.
While some researchers argue that the 1.5C warming limit is technically achievable, many regard it as politically challenging and unlikely due to the drastic changes that would be necessary in current fossil fuel consumption rates.