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France Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast to 0.7% as Trade Policy Uncertainty Persists

The revision follows US tariff adjustments and highlights the fragile economic outlook across Europe, with further changes tied to upcoming US trade negotiations.

French Minister for Economy, Finance, Industrial and Digital Security Eric Lombard is seen before a meeting with main economic actors over Trump tariffs, at the Bercy Economy and Finance Ministry in Paris in Paris, France, April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Abdul Saboor
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Overview

  • France has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing global trade uncertainties and recent US tariff policy changes.
  • US President Donald Trump announced a three-month suspension of tariffs on all countries except China, creating temporary relief but ongoing unpredictability for global markets.
  • The Bank of France and the French Economic Observatory (OFCE) have also adjusted their 2025 growth forecasts to 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, reflecting broader concerns.
  • Economy Minister Eric Lombard stated that further revisions depend on the outcome of upcoming negotiations with the United States over customs duties.
  • Italy has also reduced its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6%, signaling shared economic challenges across Europe linked to US trade policies.