Friedrich Merz Faces Challenges Despite Leading Polls for German Chancellorship

With all major candidates polling as unpopular, the 2025 Bundestag election may hinge on voter perceptions of the 'lesser evil.'

Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU candidate, is seen as the frontrunner for the February 2025 Bundestag election but faces criticism for his conservative and economically liberal stance, which limits broader appeal.
Matthias Jung, a leading election researcher, highlights Merz's 'Merz-Problem,' including his perceived unpopularity and occasional lack of composure, as potential risks to his campaign.
Current polling places the CDU/CSU at 31%, far ahead of the SPD at 15% and the Greens at 14%, with the AfD trailing at 19%.
Robert Habeck of the Greens is positioned to benefit from the unpopularity of both Merz and incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, appealing to centrist voters dissatisfied with traditional party lines.
The newly formed Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) faces significant challenges in surpassing the 5% threshold nationally, particularly in western Germany where 80% of voters reside.