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Germany’s Fossil Heating Sales Plunge as Heat Pump Uptake Falls Short of Targets

New data reveals a sharp decline in gas and oil heating sales, with heat pump installations rising modestly but far below government goals, as legal uncertainty and high costs hinder progress.

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Overview

  • The first quarter of 2025 saw gas heating sales drop by 48% and oil heating sales plummet by 81%, according to the BDH, reflecting the impact of Germany’s renewable heating mandate.
  • Heat pump installations rose by 35% to 62,000 units, a significant increase but well below the annual target of 500,000 set by policymakers.
  • High installation costs, averaging €30,000 per system, and frequent changes to subsidy and legal frameworks are causing hesitation among homeowners to transition to renewable heating options.
  • Studies highlight hybrid systems—combining gas or oil heating with photovoltaics or heat pumps—and green fuel-ready appliances as viable solutions to meet the 65% renewable energy requirement under the Gebäudeenergiegesetz (GEG).
  • Technical insights emphasize that heat pump longevity, averaging 20 years, depends on proper design and limiting compressor start-stop cycles, underscoring the need for professional installation and maintenance.