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IEA Warns of 30% Copper Supply Shortfall by 2035 as Mineral Demand Soars

High market concentration and China's refining dominance amplify risks of supply disruptions, urging governments to act swiftly on diversification and recycling.

A labourer works at a site of a rare earth metals mine at Nancheng county, Jiangxi province March 14, 2012. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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Overview

  • The International Energy Agency projects a 30% global copper supply shortfall by 2035 without immediate intervention.
  • China processes over 70% of the world's top 20 critical minerals, intensifying vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
  • The concentration of refined material markets is expected to remain high, with the top three suppliers controlling 82% of the market by 2035.
  • Lithium demand is forecasted to outpace supply by the 2030s, though prospects for new lithium projects are more favorable than for copper.
  • The IEA calls for urgent government policies to diversify supply, accelerate new projects, enhance recycling efforts, and explore material substitutes to mitigate risks.