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India Set for Normal Monsoon in 2025, Skymet Forecasts

Private forecaster predicts 103% of long period average rainfall, signaling stable agricultural and economic prospects.

The season is expected to lead to 103% (±5%) of the long period average (LPA) amount of rain. Last year’s monsoon was above normal at 108% of the LPA. (HT PHOTO)
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Citizens commute amid heavy rain in Pune. (PTI Photo)
Monsoon in India

Overview

  • Skymet Weather projects a normal monsoon for 2025, with rainfall expected to be 103% of the long period average (LPA), within a ±5% margin.
  • Favorable climate conditions, including ENSO-neutral status, fading La Niña effects, and a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to support stable monsoon performance.
  • Western and southern India, including key agricultural regions such as Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, are likely to receive adequate to excess rainfall, while northeastern and northern hilly states may see below-normal precipitation.
  • A normal monsoon is expected to boost agricultural output, stabilize food inflation, and contribute to broader economic growth, particularly in rural areas.
  • The forecast highlights the critical role of monsoon rainfall, which accounts for 70% of India's annual precipitation and sustains over half of the country's farming activities.