Overview

• The IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook forecasts India’s nominal GDP at $4.187 trillion in 2025-26, narrowly surpassing Japan to claim fourth place.
• Private consumption—particularly in rural areas—is expected to sustain a 6.2% GDP growth rate in 2025-26, keeping India the fastest-growing major economy.
• Per capita income remains low at $2,880, ranking 141st globally, while the top 1% of households now hold over 40% of national wealth.
• NITI Aayog officials project India will overtake Germany by 2027-28 to become the world’s third-largest economy if current policies continue.
• Economists warn that deeper reforms in labour markets, education, agriculture and infrastructure are crucial to spread the benefits of GDP growth more evenly.