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5d ago

India’s Q4 FY25 GDP Growth Forecast Revised to 6.9%, Below Official Projections

Private estimates suggest full-year growth of 6.3%, undershooting the NSO’s February forecast of 6.5% as urban demand and investment trends remain uneven.

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GDP | Image: Republic
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Overview

  • ICRA forecasts India’s Q4 FY25 GDP growth at 6.9% and full-year expansion at 6.3%, falling short of the NSO’s earlier projection of 7.6% for Q4 and 6.5% for the year.
  • Strong agricultural output and services exports supported rural demand, while urban consumption lagged due to slow wage growth and reduced household savings.
  • Trade-related uncertainties, including the threat of US tariffs, contributed to uneven investment activity during the quarter.
  • Merchandise exports contracted year-on-year in Q4 FY25, while services exports maintained double-digit growth, bolstering economic performance.
  • The NSO is set to release official Q4 FY25 and provisional full-year GDP figures on May 30, which will confirm the final trajectory of India’s economic growth.