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Interim Report Reveals Design Flaws, Extreme Winds Led to Bayesian Superyacht Tragedy

The Marine Accident Investigation Branch cites unrecognized stability vulnerabilities and hurricane-force gusts as causes for the 2024 capsizing off Sicily, with salvage operations still paused after a diver's death.

The Bayesian yacht (left), which capsized and sunk off the coast of Sicily in bad weather (Photo: Fabio La Bianca/PA Wire)
Floating crane ship HEBO LIFT 2, which will recover the "Bayesian" yacht of British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, leaves the port of Termini Imerese, ahead of the salvage operation off Porticello, near Palermo, Italy, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Igor Petyx/File Photo
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Overview

  • Seven people, including tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, died when the Bayesian capsized during a mesocyclonic storm on August 19, 2024.
  • The interim report identifies extreme wind gusts exceeding 70 knots as the primary factor that tipped the vessel past its stability limits in under 15 seconds.
  • Investigators found the yacht's design vulnerabilities, such as operating in motoring mode with a raised centerboard, were not documented in its stability information booklet.
  • Italian authorities' criminal investigation has restricted access to the wreck, limiting evidence available to the UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch.
  • Salvage operations, initiated in May 2025, remain on hold following the fatality of a diver, with no set timeline for resumption or completion of the investigation.