Overview

• Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is on course to win the most seats in Canada’s election, securing a fourth consecutive term in power.
• Projections show the Liberals winning at least 160 seats, with the Conservatives trailing at 151, leaving the possibility of a minority government.
• The election was shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric, which Carney countered with targeted Canadian tariffs and a focus on sovereignty.
• The Liberals overcame a 20-point polling deficit from February, with Carney’s leadership and economic experience rallying voters.
• Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau in March, emphasized Canada’s resilience and independence in the face of escalating U.S.-Canada tensions.