NASA Revises Impact Risk for Asteroid 2024 YR4 After New Data

The asteroid's impact probability for 2032 has been adjusted from a peak of 3.1% to 1.5%, with further observations expected to refine its trajectory.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has an estimated size of 40 to 90 meters and could potentially impact Earth on December 22, 2032.
NASA's initial calculations raised the asteroid's impact probability to 3.1%, the highest ever for an object of its size, but subsequent observations have reduced it to 1.5%.
The asteroid's current risk rating on the Torino Scale is 3, signifying a close encounter that warrants continued monitoring by astronomers worldwide.
Most potential impact scenarios fall over water, but the 'risk corridor' includes major cities like Bogota, Lagos, and Mumbai, raising concerns about localized destruction.
Efforts to refine the asteroid's trajectory are ongoing, with telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope and others gathering data to further lower the uncertainty.