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New Study Warns 1.5°C Warming Limit Fails to Prevent Catastrophic Ice Sheet Melting

Scientists call for a stricter 1°C target to mitigate irreversible sea level rise and protect coastal populations.

Ice floats near the coast of West Antarctica on October 28, 2016. Scientists are concerned the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be in a state of irreversible decline directly contributing to rising sea levels.
ANTARCTICA - FEBRUARY 07: The glaciers are seen as the floes melt due to global climate change in Antarctica on February 07, 2022. Turkish scientists, within the scope of the 6th National Antarctic Science Expedition, monitored the global climate change and followed the glaciers that provide the heat balance of the world and decrease every year. (Photo by Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Research reveals that even limiting global warming to 1.5°C will not halt rapid ice sheet melting, with sea levels projected to rise by at least 1–2 meters by 2100.
  • Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing 370 billion tons of ice annually, with ice mass loss quadrupling since the 1990s, now the primary driver of sea level rise.
  • Current warming of 1.2°C is accelerating sea level rise at rates that could become unmanageable within decades, threatening 230 million people living within 1 meter of sea level.
  • Scientists emphasize that ice sheet melting is effectively irreversible on human timescales, with recovery taking centuries to millennia even if temperatures return to pre-industrial levels.
  • The world is on track for 2.5–2.9°C warming by 2100, far exceeding thresholds for ice sheet collapse, underscoring the urgent need for immediate and deep emissions cuts.