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NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season with Early Storm Development Likely

Forecasters warn of above-normal storm activity as a low-pressure system near Mexico shows high potential for becoming the season's first tropical storm.

Hurricane Helene closes in on the Florida coast in this NOAA satellite image from Sept. 26, 2024. Helene was the continental United States’ deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
A 3D Render of a the Caribbean Sea from Sept. 26, 2024 showing Hurricane Helene approach the Big Bend of Florida.
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Overview

  • The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, starting June 1, is forecasted to have a 60% chance of above-normal tropical storm activity, according to NOAA.
  • NOAA predicts 13-19 named storms, with 6-10 becoming hurricanes and 3-5 reaching major hurricane status during the season.
  • A developing low-pressure system near Mexico's southern coast has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm between May 26 and May 30, potentially named Alvin.
  • Key environmental factors contributing to the active forecast include warm ocean temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions, and an active West African Monsoon.
  • Experts emphasize the importance of early preparation for potential impacts, as recent years have shown significant inland and coastal devastation from hurricanes.