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Oil Prices Hold Near $65 as OPEC+ Prepares July Supply Increase

Markets balance relief from a US-EU trade talks extension with expectations of a 411,000 bpd production rise at the OPEC+ meeting on May 31.

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
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FILE PHOTO: People walk past an installation depicting barrel of oil with the logo of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the COP29 United Nations climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Overview

  • US President Trump extended the deadline for trade talks with the European Union until July 9, easing fears of new tariffs that could curb fuel demand.
  • OPEC+ moved its July output decision up to May 31, and the eight-member V8 subgroup is expected to approve a third straight 411,000 barrels per day increase.
  • Brent crude trades near $65 a barrel while WTI hovers around $61.40 as investors weigh potential oversupply against improved trade sentiment.
  • Global oil inventories climbed to 7.7 billion barrels in March and floating storage rose 14% over the past month, signaling mounting surplus.
  • Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations have shown limited progress but remain a key factor in the outlook for future Iranian oil exports.