Overview

• Brent crude prices are holding near $65 per barrel after a sharp decline from over $80 in January 2025.
• OPEC+ has confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for June, contributing to supply growth.
• US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled, reducing the likelihood of sanctions easing and additional Iranian oil entering the market.
• The Energy Agency forecasts a supply surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025, pressuring prices further.
• US shale production is expected to plateau as prices remain below the $65 breakeven level, with industry leaders signaling limited growth potential.