Poland Prepares for Presidential Election That Could Reshape Tusk’s Reform Agenda

With Rafał Trzaskowski leading polls, the May 18 vote sets the stage for a pivotal run-off deciding the fate of Poland's presidential veto power.

Overview

Rafał Trzaskowski, a pro-European liberal and Warsaw mayor, leads opinion polls ahead of Poland's first-round presidential vote on May 18.
Karol Nawrocki, the PiS-backed conservative candidate and ally of Donald Trump, is the main challenger, with far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen in third place.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda’s vetoes have blocked Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s legislative reforms, including judicial changes, civil rights measures, and EU funding access.
A Trzaskowski victory in the anticipated June 1 run-off could remove the presidential veto barrier, enabling Tusk to advance his reform agenda.
If Nawrocki wins, the veto roadblock is expected to persist, limiting Tusk’s ability to deliver on campaign promises until the next parliamentary elections in 2027.