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Poland’s Presidential Runoff Set for June 1 as Far-Right Voters Hold Key Influence

Centrist Rafal Trzaskowski leads nationalist Karol Nawrocki by 1.5% after the first round, with ultranationalist voters expected to play a decisive role.

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Overview

  • Rafal Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw, secured 31.2% of the vote in the first round, narrowly ahead of nationalist Karol Nawrocki, who received 29.7%.
  • Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun collectively garnered 22% of the vote, positioning their supporters as a pivotal bloc in the June 1 runoff.
  • The outcome will determine whether Poland’s presidency aligns with the current government or remains politically divided, impacting key issues like EU integration and minority rights.
  • Negotiations to secure ultranationalist votes remain inconclusive, leaving uncertainty over whether their support will consolidate behind Nawrocki.
  • Moderate strategists had anticipated a larger lead for Trzaskowski, but the slim 1.5% margin underscores the unpredictability of the upcoming runoff.