Overview

• Portugal is holding its third parliamentary election since 2022 following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's minority government in March over a conflict-of-interest scandal.
• Opinion polls project the center-right Aliança Democrática (AD) to lead with 27–34% of the vote, while the Socialist Party (PS) is expected to trail closely with 26–31%.
• The far-right Chega party, polling at 17–20%, could play a pivotal role in shaping the next government, though AD has ruled out a coalition with them.
• Key campaign issues include a strained healthcare system, surging housing costs, and infrastructure challenges, alongside a controversial push for stricter immigration policies.
• With no party expected to secure an outright majority, another fragile minority government is likely, continuing Portugal's recent trend of political instability.