Study Links Unexpected Inflation to Rise in Support for Extremist Parties

Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows inflation shocks and economic struggles boost votes for radical parties in Germany and beyond.

The study analyzed 365 elections in 18 industrialized nations between 1948 and 2023 to assess the impact of economic conditions on voting behavior.
A 10-percentage-point inflation shock during a legislative period, combined with stagnant real wages, is linked to a 2.8% rise in support for populist or extremist parties.
Economic growth exceeding expectations or wage increases that offset inflation reduce the appeal of radical parties, the research shows.
High inflation without corresponding wage adjustments has also been tied to an increase in public dissatisfaction, protests, and strikes.
The findings help explain recent electoral gains for parties like Germany’s AfD and BSW, as well as broader global trends in populist support during economic crises.