UCLA Anderson Forecast Warns Trump Policies Could Trigger Economic Downturn

The forecast highlights risks from tariffs, immigration enforcement, and workforce reductions but notes a recession is avoidable with policy adjustments.

The UCLA Anderson Forecast has issued its first-ever 'recession watch,' warning of potential economic risks tied to Trump administration policies.
Key policies cited include tariffs, immigration enforcement, and federal workforce reductions, which could lead to contractions in multiple sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and finance.
The forecast emphasizes that a recession is not inevitable and could be avoided if the policies are modified or implemented gradually.
Emerging weaknesses in household spending and elevated risks in the financial sector are identified as additional vulnerabilities that could amplify a downturn.
The Trump administration acknowledges potential short-term disruptions but argues that the policies will deliver long-term economic benefits.