Overview

• The Met Office’s three-month outlook assigns a 2.3-times greater probability of a hotter-than-normal summer, warning of increased heatwave impacts
• Weather models from WX Charts, Netweather and BBC predict mini-heatwaves from June 12–15, with southern and eastern England likely to see highs of 30–31C
• Forecasts identify areas including Yorkshire, Cumbria and Northumberland as missing out on peak heat, remaining cooler than much of England
• Spring 2025 delivered a record 630 hours of sunshine and the driest conditions in over a century, setting the stage for early-season warmth
• Long-term climate trends and elevated sea surface temperatures are driving the rise in extreme summer weather frequency and intensity