Overview

• The US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce, significantly lowering tariffs—US duties on Chinese goods reduced to 30% from 145%, and Chinese tariffs on US imports cut to 10% from 125%.
• Goldman Sachs raised its US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%, up from 0.5%, and lowered its US recession probability to 35% from 45%.
• China's GDP growth projections were upgraded by multiple brokerages, with Goldman Sachs predicting 4.6% growth and UBS estimating a range of 3.7% to 4%.
• Major financial institutions now expect only one Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, reflecting reduced urgency for monetary policy support.
• Investor confidence surged, with Goldman Sachs increasing its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,100 points, citing eased trade tensions and recession risks.