Overview

• The World Meteorological Organization reports a 70% likelihood that the 2025–29 period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, up from a 47% chance in last year’s forecast.
• There is an 86% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will top 1.5°C and a 1% chance of at least one year surpassing 2°C.
• Record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024 saw global averages hit 1.55°C above pre-industrial, marking the first calendar year beyond the 1.5°C threshold.
• Arctic temperatures are projected to rise more than three times faster than the global average over the next five years, accelerating sea-ice loss in the Barents, Bering and Okhotsk seas.
• Rising CO2 emissions that have not yet begun to decline underpin these projections and point to worsening extreme weather, sea-level rise and ecosystem stress.