Recession Concerns Drive Treasury Yields Lower and Fuel Economic Uncertainty

Bond markets signal economic slowdown as tariffs and volatile equity markets heighten investor caution.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dropped nearly 60 basis points since January, reflecting heightened recession fears and investor flight to safety.
President Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have amplified concerns about economic growth and potential GDP contraction.
Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have surged, with investors now pricing in up to three reductions by year-end.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note hit its lowest level since October, driven by fears of short-term economic impacts and policy uncertainty.
Global bond markets are also reacting to significant fiscal policy changes in Germany, which are reshaping safe-haven debt dynamics.